MARCH 2020: 67GOINGON50 CORONAVIRUS REPORT/UPDATE

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE FROM 67GOINGON50: March 18 2020

The Blogger has an honours science degree in Health Sciences 

 which included pre-med courses alongside medical  students.  

   She was a tv & radio journalist in Canada, London & Hong Kong 

DRAMATIC CHANGE OF TONE...AND NOT IN A GOOD WAY

In a press conference in Monday evening the Prime Minister announced the start of a partial lockdown involving:

• EVERYONE stopping non-essential contact with others - working from home, reducing travel where possible and avoiding pubs, sports events & theatres
• entire households self isolating for 14 days if one member exhibits  coronavirus symptoms 
• the over '70's, even if healthy, self-isolating for 3 months

Table of Contents: 

1. New restrictions
2. How close is a cure?
3. Stockpiling
4. Economic Effects
5. Why anti-coronavirus measures have been stepped up
6. Media Reports: separating the wheat from the chaff
7. Self-isolation/Social Separation

          for the individual
          for households
          for healthy over 70's
          for the symptom free
  
  8. Portraits from a North London village

****

Life has gone in a flash from wary but hopeful to fearful and depressed.  What a difference a week makes! (Or, as some joker remarked: 'It's Squeaky Bum Time!')

In six days, we have gone from simple instructions (wash hands, self-isolate even if symptoms are mild) and assurances that for most, coronavirus would be not much worse than a cold or flu, to...well, potential Doomsday.

The bubble of complacency which surrounded many of us has been well and truly pricked.  (Though NHS latest advice insists 'For most people, coronavirus (COVID-19) will be a mild infection'.)

The change in approach follows the virus' faster-than-expected progress in the UK, especially in London.  It's approaching a peak a few weeks ahead of previous estimates.  

The dramatic measures are designed to slow its spread, reduce the number of victims and most importantly, bring down fatalities.  They will also ease pressure on the NHS.

HOW CLOSE IS A CURE?

Coronavirus is a brand new disease and scientists are still not sure how it works.  The overall picture is incomplete because testing focuses on the unwell and does not include those who have had the disease but recovered.  That's why it's so difficult to predict the speed of its spread. 

Even if a cure is found (it's rumoured the Israelis already have), it will take at least a year to 18 months to produce -- though politicians and manufacturers say it could only be a matter of months. 


The pandemic is unnerving - indeed, terrifying.  We  seem so helpless; our belief in technology and innovation, our natural optimism has been shaken.  Even the religious are asking: is this punishment or a test of faith and charity?

Whatever the answer, increasingly severe measures including closing borders, heavily enforced lockdowns, the uninterrupted spread of the virus and rising death tolls abroad have helped propel the UK from mild panic to near-hysteria. 

STOCKPILING

So of course people are stockpiling.

Supermarket shelves have been stripped completely bare; 12 supermarkets have published a joint letter urging customers to buy responsibly.  

Some are already limiting purchases; others hire guards to manage queues.  Many are considering restricting the range of products available to basic essentials.      

ECONOMIC EFFECTS

Stock markets have been up and down like a roller coaster.  Companies are terrified of going bust; weaker enterprises have gone to the wall.  People are increasingly anxious about jobs, mortgages, overdrafts.

If there is a silver lining, it is the Bank of England's assurance that banks have undergone so much stress-testing in recent years, they are in a much stronger condition now than they were before the last (really bad) financial crisis.  That could mean when we finally get through this crisis, recovery will be reasonably quick. 

In the meantime the government has announced a £330 BILLION fund of loans to help companies in trouble and is in talks with unions and others to help individuals who freelance or participate in the gig economy.   

Banks are prepared to delay interest & overdraft payments if customers are unable to work due to self-isolation.  However a NatWest London branch said they have not been given details as to how the scheme will work -- whether a doctor's note will be necessary, how long the scheme will run for, etc.  


IS THE GOVERNMENT'S POLICY THE RIGHT ONE?

It's easy to look at other western countries and worry that the UK is pursuing different tactics but the UK's plans have been ranked number one in the world by the Global Health Security Index.  Moreover, the growth of the virus recently in the UK has been slower than many major European countries.  

No one can tell yet how things will turn out here or elsewhere because scientists just don't know.  Most epidemiologists believe that with modern science, there's never been a better time to fight a pandemic like Coronovirus.  And the UK is a leader in research into this field.

UK strategy, at least, is based entirely on the expertise of world-leading scientists.  Timing appears to be the key to the government's actions.  We're  seeing how swiftly and calmly the UK government can respond to changes in the progress of the disease and to learn from the experience of other countries.  

Italy's experience is terrifying; it's going to be a scary few months in the UK.  But we must do everything we can to prevent as many deaths as we can.  We don't really have a choice -- it's our duty to follow instructions, pray for a vaccine and help one another through the crisis.   


THE MEDIA: WHAT'S TRUE VS WHAT'S SPECULATION

There's an awful lot of stuff circulating in newspapers, telly and social media.  It  can be hard to work out what to believe.  

These tips may help separate the wheat from the chaff.  In general:

• advice from the Prime Minister, the Health Secretary Matt Hancock, NHS Boffin Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Valance,  presented in an official press conference is official, can be believed and should be followed

• a stumble here or there by the above, singly or as a group (and it won't be just one stumble) does not mean incompetence; it means things are fast moving and the government is trying to keep up 

• journalists (and members of the public) sometimes take a single sentence or concept out of a longer interview/press conference and blow it out of proportion.  Perhaps the phrase 'herd immunity' was one of those occasions? 

• beware the words 'apparent' which means 'no one is prepared to officially confirm or deny but it seems to [the journalist/writer making a claim] to be a logical conclusion'

• any media story on a new development which contains the words 'plan', 'could' or 'may happen down the line' means it is not happening now but is possible (not probable) later.  We are not - repeat not - in a worst case scenario 

• the kinds of draconian restrictions and highly enforced lockdowns that are happening elsewhere in the west will not necessarily happen in the UK  

• experts are back in our good books but beware organised groups of scientists with no experience in virology or epidemiology who criticise the government's actions 

• sadly, some criticism is nakedly political; it is the opposition's job to challenge the government but listen/read with an open mind  

• ignore social media on coronavirus; it will do your head in

• NHS guidelines are useful but can be confusing and not always up to date

SELF ISOLATION for suspected Coronavirus: NHS ADVICE 
(The Over-70's and The Symptom-Free below)
  
The following is an amalgamated, slightly edited version of information available on the official NHS website.

Stay at home for 7 days if you have these symptoms, however MILD, to protect others while you are infectious:

• a high temperature – you feel hot to touch on your chest or back
• you've started coughing repeatedly

Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.  Testing for coronavirus is not necessary if you're staying at home.  You do not need to contact 111.

NHS  on self-isolation

• if you have symptoms of coronavirus infection, however mild, you must self-isolate

• Do not go to work, school, or public areas and do not use public transport or taxis. You cannot go for a walk

• Singletons living on their own must not leave their home for 7 days from when your symptoms started.  Sleep alone.  Keep 2 metres (3 steps) from other people  (See ending isolation for more information)

• Entire households must self isolate for 14 days if one member has coronavirus symptoms (see above).  The number of days is doubled - 7 days for the first incidence including time for the disease to incubate, plus another 7 days 

• stay away from vulnerable individuals -- the elderly and those with underlying health conditions

• keep your home well-ventilated with a window that can be left opened as much as possible to keep clean air moving through 

• wash hands regularly for 20 seconds, each time using soap and water, or use hand sanitiser

• cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not hands) when  coughing or sneezing

• bin used tissues immediately; wash hands afterwards

• drink plenty of water & take everyday painkillers if needed (note: the government has advised steering clear of ibuprofen)

• plan how you can get access to food and medical supplies  - online?  phone? friends?

• all deliveries to be be left outside your home

• keep in touch with employers, friends/family 

• occupy yourself by cooking, knitting, reading, online learning, watching films & telly

• exercise when you are feeling better with online classes or light exercise at home 

• If symptoms worsen or are no better after 7 days, contact NHS 111 online.  If you have no internet, call NHS 111. For a medical emergency dial 999

The Over-70's

From this weekend, over-70's are to self-isolate for three months.

They are advised to be 'particularly stringent' in avoiding face-to-face interaction and stick to social distancing rules: keeping 2 metres (3 steps) from other people.  This applies even to those who are fit, healthy and have no coronavirus symptoms. 

The rules also apply to pregnant women on a 'better-to-be-safe-than-sorry' basis.   

Bloggers' Notes:  
It is not clear how strictly the measures will be enforced. 67goingon50 understands the only outside activity open to healthy over-70's is essential shopping and regular walks in a park - with or without a dog.  

Everyone Else is encouraged to STOP ALL NON-ESSENTIAL CONTACT:

• practice Social Distancing; keep a distance of 2 metres between you and others   
• work from home where possible
• avoid public transport where possible; don't travel in the rush hour
• avoid large and small gatherings
• avoid pubs, clubs, theatres 
• visit shops only for essentials 
• solitary dog-walking in a park is allowed  

PORTRAIT OF A NORTH LONDON VILLAGE

Pomona Greengrocers, Belsize Park: 

'We have been given no government guidance as to what to do.  We are still getting good produce but the advice to avoid pubs and restaurants could be bad for us.  There will be fewer orders to producers and that could affect what's on offer to us down the line.  Some struggling restaurants have already gone to the wall.  I wish the government had advised restaurants and pubs to limit the number of diners rather than advising people to avoid them.'

Barretts Butchers, England's Lane: (customers quietly queue with a 2 metre separation zone; debit cards are returned wrapped in a receipt)

'We are very busy; people have been buying remarkably large amounts of fresh meat.  For the future in the UK, there is plenty more where that came from.' 

NatWest: (see Economic above)

Roni's Bagel & Deli, Belsize Village: usually exceptionally busy on Friday mornings; fewer tables occupied but a safe distance apart.  Heavy take-away traffic. 


PS
The NHS has updated its advice on Coronavirus here

This information was compiled and edited by the Blogger and may not be re-produced without written permission.  B Lee/Bright Sun Enterprises accept no liability for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided. Please feel free to link to this site.